The bluff
Chris Moneymaker vs Sam Farha · WSOP Main Event · 2003. Teaches fold equity.
- 01before the deal, open this step in the interactive versionMoneymakerK♠ 7♥
2003 World Series of Poker, Main Event. Two players left, heads-up. You are Chris Moneymaker, an amateur who won his seat in an online satellite. Across from you is Sam Farha, a professional.
- 02preflop, open this step in the interactive versionPot210k
Blinds are 20k and 40k, with a 5k ante. You hold K♠ 7♥ on the button and raise to 100k. Farha calls from the big blind.
- 03flop, open this step in the interactive versionBoard9♠ 2♦ 6♠
The flop is 9♠ 2♦ 6♠. Farha checks. With king-high and one spade, you check behind.
- 04turn, open this step in the interactive versionBoard9♠ 2♦ 6♠ 8♠
The 8♠ gives you a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw. Farha bets 300k into 210k.
show what he did
what he didHe raised to 800k, a semi-bluff. Farha called.
the mathCalling 300k into a pot of 510k needs 300 ÷ (510 + 300) = 37%: your pot odds. Against Farha’s actual hand, 17 of the 44 unseen rivers win for you: 39%. Even calling is profitable. Raising adds a chance that he folds now: a semi-bluff.
- 05river, open this step in the interactive versionBoard9♠ 2♦ 6♠ 8♠ 3♥Pot1.81M
The river is the 3♥. You missed both draws and hold king-high. Farha checks.
show what he did
what he didHe moved all-in. Farha had 2.865M left, so that is what the bet risks: 2.865M into 1.81M.
the mathKing-high almost never wins at showdown, so checking gives up the pot. All-in risks 2.865M to win 1.81M. It profits if Farha folds more than 2.865M ÷ (1.81M + 2.865M) = 61% of the time. That is fold equity at work.
- 06river, open this step in the interactive versionFarhaQ♠ 9♥
Farha thinks for a long time and folds Q♠ 9♥: a pair of nines, the best hand. King-high won a pot it could never win at showdown.
- 07takeaway, open this step in the interactive version
Fold equity is the part of a bet’s value that comes from the other player folding. When your hand can’t win at showdown, it is the only value a bet has.