Expected value

You can pay $20 to play for a $100 pot. You’ll win about one time in four.

Two things can happen. You win $100 a quarter of the time, or lose $20 the rest of the time.

Weight each result by how often it happens, then add them up. That’s expected value.

Here it’s +$10. You will never win exactly $10 on a hand. You win $100 or lose $20.

Expected value is what you average if you play the same spot many times. Watch 100 hands.

Some stretches lose money. Over enough hands, the average settles near +$10 per hand.

Folding always earns exactly $0. Calling earns +$10 on average. Pick the bigger number: call.

Change how often you win. Below one time in six, calling is worse than folding.