Odds and outs
Counting the cards that help you, and the price of a call.
- 01, open this step in the interactive versionYour cardsA♥ J♥BoardK♣ 9♥ 4♥
You hold A♥ J♥. The flop is K♣ 9♥ 4♥. Four hearts. One more makes a flush.
- 02, open this step in the interactive version
How many hearts are left that you haven’t seen?
show answer
answer9
why13 hearts in the deck, minus the 4 you can see.
- 03, open this step in the interactive version
Cards that would give you the winning hand are called outs. You have 9 of them, hidden among 47 unseen cards.
- 04, open this step in the interactive version
Roughly what is your chance of hitting a heart on the turn?
show answer
answer19%
why9 out of 47 is about 19%. With the turn and river both to come, it’s about 35%.
- 05, open this step in the interactive version
A shortcut: multiply your outs by 2 with one card to come, or by 4 with two. With 8 outs and two cards to come?
show answer
answer32%
why8 × 4 = 32. The exact answer is 31.5%, close enough to decide.
- 06, open this step in the interactive versionPot$100, their bet $25
Now the price. The pot is $100 and they bet $25. You risk $25 for a final pot of $150, so you need to hit about 17% of the time. You hit 19%. Call or fold?
show answer
answerCall
whyYour chance is higher than the price. Over many hands, this call makes money even though you’ll usually miss.
- 07, open this step in the interactive version
Your chance against the price: that comparison is behind most decisions in poker. Next: why acting last is worth money.