Quads against a full house
Gus Hansen vs Daniel Negreanu · High Stakes Poker · 2006. Teaches coolers and variance.
- 01before the deal, open this step in the interactive versionNegreanu6♠ 6♥
High Stakes Poker, season 2, 2006. A cash game: the chips are real dollars. Blinds are $300 and $600. You are Daniel Negreanu. Across the table is Gus Hansen.
- 02preflop, open this step in the interactive versionPot$11,700
Hansen raises to $2,100. You hold 6♠ 6♥ and 3-bet to $5,000. Hansen calls. With the blinds and antes, the pot is $11,700.
- 03flop, open this step in the interactive versionBoard9♣ 6♦ 5♥
The flop is 9♣ 6♦ 5♥. You have a set of sixes. Hansen checks, you bet $8,000, and he raises to $26,000.
show what he did
what he didHe called.
the mathCalling $18,000 more into $45,700 needs 28%. Hansen held 5♦ 5♣, a smaller set. Against it you have 94.8%: he needs the last five, or a turn and river that make a straight on the board and split the pot.
- 04turn, open this step in the interactive versionBoard9♣ 6♦ 5♥ 5♠Pot$63,700
The turn is the 5♠. You have a full house, sixes full of fives. Hansen bets $24,000.
show what he did
what he didHe called.
the mathCalling $24,000 into $87,700 needs 21%. But the card that gave you a full house gave Hansen four of a kind. Against his actual hand you now win only on the last six: 2.3%.
- 05river, open this step in the interactive versionBoard9♣ 6♦ 5♥ 5♠ 8♠Pot$111,700
The river is the 8♠. Hansen checks to you.
show what he did
what he didHe bet $65,000.
the mathFrom your seat, only 7 two-card hands beat sixes full on this board: 9-9 (3 ways), 8-8 (3 ways), 5-5 (1 way). Most hands that would call a bet are worse than yours. That makes it a value bet.
- 06river, open this step in the interactive versionPot$241,700
Hansen check-raises all-in: $167,000 more.
show what he did
what he didHe called.
the mathCalling $167,000 to win $408,700 needs $167,000 ÷ $575,700 = 29%. Against Hansen’s actual hand you win 0%. Whether the call is right depends on how often he makes this raise with a hand you beat.
- 07river, open this step in the interactive versionHansen5♦ 5♣Pot$575,700
Hansen shows 5♦ 5♣: four fives. At $575,700, it was the biggest pot in High Stakes Poker history at the time.
- 08takeaway, open this step in the interactive version
A cooler: two hands too strong to fold, and one of them loses. You had 81% before the flop and 95% on the flop. One card later, 2%. That swing is variance. Judge the calls by the price and the hands he could have had, not by the one he showed.