The river nine
Chris Ferguson vs T.J. Cloutier · WSOP Main Event · 2000. Teaches all-in equity.
- 01before the deal, open this step in the interactive versionFergusonA♠ 9♣
2000 World Series of Poker, Main Event. Two players left, heads-up. You are Chris Ferguson. Across from you is T.J. Cloutier, the favourite to win.
- 02preflop, open this step in the interactive version
You hold A♠ 9♣ and raise. Cloutier moves all-in for almost 2.5 million in chips.
show what he did
what he didAfter a long think, he called.
the mathCloutier held A♦ Q♣: the same ace and a better kicker. Over all 1,712,304 possible boards, A♠ 9♣ wins or splits enough to take 26% of the pot. Calling costs his all-in minus your raise. Unless your raise was already about 48% of his all-in, the price asked for more than 26%.
- 03preflop, open this step in the interactive versionCloutierA♦ Q♣
Both hands are turned face up. You need help, mostly a nine. A board that makes both kickers useless would split the pot. You take 26% of the pot on average: roughly one time in four.
- 04flop, open this step in the interactive versionBoardK♣ 4♥ 2♥
The flop is K♣ 4♥ 2♥. No help: your equity falls to 15.2%.
- 05turn, open this step in the interactive versionBoardK♣ 4♥ 2♥ K♥
The turn is another king. Now only a nine wins for you: 3 of the 44 unseen cards. A four or a two, 6 more cards, would pair the board and counterfeit both kickers, splitting the pot. Your equity: 13.6%.
- 06river, open this step in the interactive versionBoardK♣ 4♥ 2♥ K♥ 9♥
The river is the 9♥. You make two pair, kings and nines, and win the 2000 Main Event and $1,500,000. Cloutier takes $896,500 for second.
- 07takeaway, open this step in the interactive version
All-in equity is the share of the pot a hand wins on average, over every way the board can come. Yours went from 26% to 15% to 14%, and you won. One result can’t tell you if a call was right. Only the price and the equity can.